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• Earnings season kicks off this week in the real estate sector. More than 100 REITs, 10 homebuilders, and 50 housing-related companies will report fourth-quarter earnings over the next six weeks.
• Real estate equities have led the broader equity over the last quarter amid the retreat in interest rates and inflation expectations. The “Rates Down, REITs Up” mantra continued throughout 2018.
• For REITs, investors will be hoping that the positive momentum of 2018 continued in 4Q18. A trend of the past two years, 2019 guidance is likely to be very conservative.
• After the dismal end to 2018 for single family housing data, homebuilders earnings will be a key focus of not just real estate investors, but of all global market participants.
• Given the sensitivity of single family ownership demand to mortgage rates, and the wide range of expectations on rates, earnings commentary and guidance will likely be all across the board.