Real Estate Extends Gains Amid Turbulence
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- On another wild week for financial markets amid a flurry of volatility, US stocks couldn’t quite claw back all of their early-week declines, ending lower for the third straight week.
- Record-low bond yields around the globe, including new historic lows on the US 30-year Treasury yield, helped to power the real estate sector to another week of outperformance.
- Lower mortgage rates have revitalized the US single-family housing market, which saw starts jump to the highest level since January. Homebuilder sentiment and mortgage demand data was also solid.
- Strong retail sales data eased investor concern over the health of the US consumer, but industrial and manufacturing production data continues to show weakening demand for goods from abroad.
- Core inflation has unexpectedly perked up a bit this summer, primarily led by rising housing costs. The rise in CPI: Shelter is near the highest level in a decade.
The domestic-focused and rate-sensitive equity sectors, particularly real estate and utilities, extended their 2019 outperformance this week as the 10-year yield continued its free fall. The broad-based REIT ETFs (VNQ and IYR) finished slightly higher on the week, pushing their outperformance relative to the S&P 500 to nearly 6% over the past four weeks and pushed their total return on the year to roughly 25%. The gains would be even higher absent the continued weak performance from the mall REIT sector, which dove another 4% on the week following soft earnings from department store giant Macy's (M) despite otherwise solid retail sales data. The residential and technology-focused real estate sectors led the gains last week.
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