REIT Earnings Halftime Report

  • We're now at the halfway point of real estate earnings season with roughly 60 equity REITs and 14 mortgage REITs representing 50% of the total market capitalization having reported first-quarter.

  • Results thus far have been better than the prevailing narrative would suggest. Of the 49 REITs that provide guidance, 23 (47%) raised their full-year earnings outlook while 5 (10%) lowered.

  • Office and commercial mortgage REITs have been in focus given the stiff work-from-home headwinds and shaky dividend outlook. Vornado suspended its dividend, but results have otherwise been decent thus far.

  • Apartment and Industrial REITs have accounted for nearly half of the guidance boosts thus far. Residential rent growth appears to have firmed in recent months after a rather sharp cooldown in late 2022 amid a broader Spring revival across the housing sector.

  • While still early in earnings season for other sectors, retail REITs have reported impressive leasing momentum. Healthcare REITs' operator issues have remained status-quo. More broadly, REITs appear content in remaining hunkered down with muted appetite for aggressive external growth.

We're now at the halfway point of real estate earnings season with roughly 60 equity REITs and 14 mortgage REITs representing 50% of the total market capitalization having reported first-quarter. Results thus far have been far-better than the prevailing narrative would suggest. Of the 49 REITs that provide guidance, 23 (47%) raised their full-year earnings outlook, while 5 (10%) lowered guidance, which is pacing slightly ahead of the historic average for the first-quarter. Apartment and Industrial REITs have accounted for nearly half of the guidance boosts thus far. Residential rent growth appears to have firmed in recent months after a rather sharp cooldown in late 2022 amid a broader Spring revival across the housing sector.

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