REIT Earnings Preview: When The Tide Goes Out
Real estate earnings season kicks into gear this week, and over the next month, we'll hear results from 175 equity REITs, 40 mortgage REITs, and dozens of housing industry companies.
This report discusses the major high-level themes and metrics we'll be watching across each property sector. We're particularly focused on commentary regarding cap rates, acquisition prospects, and dividend sustainability.
The flat performance on the REIT Index this year hides some notably sharp bifurcations within the sector, with residential and industrial sectors posting notable outperformance, offset by weakness in office.
Many well-capitalized REITs are equipped to "play offense" and take advantage of acquisition opportunities from weaker private players - but whether or not these typically-defensive REITs are ready to take a more aggressive tact remains a key focus.
Most equity REITs still have a healthy buffer to protect current payout levels if macroeconomic conditions take a turn for the worse, but we'll be closely-monitoring dividend commentary in the office, mortgage, and healthcare REIT sectors.
